RAMS World Oil Model: A PC-Based Model of the Penetration of Unconventional Oil into the World Oil Market

摘要

This document is intended to provide an overview of the RAMS (Research and Development Analysis and Modeling System) World Oil Model. This model is designed to be a tool to aid in planning of unconventional liquid fuel R and D programs. It is intended to provide a relatively simple, qualitative framework simulating long-term trends in the world oil market within which market penetration of alternative synthetic and unconventional fuels may be studied. The model design emphasizes robustness, flexibility, and transparency; it is not intended to be a quantitative tool for precise projection of future oil markets. The model is implemented as a Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet on an IBM PC. The purpose of the model is to permit study of the penetration of unconventional oil into the world market. The means chosen to accomplish this was to devise a supply/demand equilibrium model of the world oil market (excluding the internal interactions of countries with centrally planned economies) for the 50-year period from 1980 to 2030. The supply of oil from 24 regional sources and 15 unconventional fuel technologies is balanced against oil demand from three aggregate world regions to calculate world oil production and price tracks. When the world oil price exceeds the cost of an unconventional source of oil, it will penetrate the market at a rate determined by timing and production growth parameters. 8 refs. (ERA citation 11:026932)