Analysis of a Historical (1981–2010) Temperature Record of the Punjab Province of Pakistan

摘要

AbstractProlonged droughts and uneven monsoons have adversely affected socioeconomic and environmental conditions of Pakistan, especially of the Punjab province. Analysis of historical (1981–2010) daily minimum and maximum temperatures from five cities in semiarid Punjab, Pakistan, was carried out to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in thermal regimes. A total of 13 climate change indices were calculated using daily minimum and maximum temperatures and analyzed for trend using RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of a trend, respectively. Observed trends in selected indices during 1981–2010 suggest an overall warming in the region. Over the analysis period, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold (10th percentile) nights and days has decreased by ?3.94 nights per decade and ?0.61 days per decade, respectively. Occurrence of extreme hot...