Population Change and Its Driving Factors in Rural, Suburban, and Urban Areas of Wisconsin, USA, 1970–2000

摘要

Population growth (or decline) is influenced by many factors that fall into the broad realms of demographic characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, transportation infrastructure, natural amenities, and land use and development across space and time. This paper adopts an integrated spatial regression approach to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of these factors' effects on population change. Specifically, we conduct the analysis at the minor civil division level in Wisconsin, USA, from 1970 to 2000. The results suggest that the factors have varying effects on population change over time and across rural, suburban, and urban areas. Their effects depend upon the general trend of population redistribution processes, local dynamics, and areal characteristics. Overall, a systematic examination of population change should consider a variety of factors, temporal and spatial variation of their effects, and spatial spillover effects. The examination should have the flexibility to identify and incorporate influential factors at a given point in time and space, not to adhere to a single set of drivers in all circumstances. The findings have important implications for population predictions used for local and regional planning.