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Hacia la sostenibilidad portuaria mediante modelos probabilísticos: redes bayesianas

机译:通过概率模型实现港口可持续发展:贝叶斯网络

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It is necessary that a manager of an infrastructure knows relations between variables. Using Bayesian networks, variables can be classified, predicted and diagnosed, being able to estimate posterior probability of the unknown ones based on known ones. The proposed methodology has generated a database with port variables, which have been classified as economic, social, environmental and institutional, as addressed in of smart ports studies made in all Spanish Port System. Network has been developed using an acyclic directed graph, which have let us know relationships in terms of parents and sons. In probabilistic terms, it can be concluded from the constructed network that the most decisive variables for port sustainability are those that are part of the institutional dimension. It has been concluded that Bayesian networks allow modeling uncertainty probabilistically even when the number of variables is high as it occurs in port planning and exploitation.
机译:基础架构的管理者必须了解变量之间的关系。使用贝叶斯网络,可以对变量进行分类,预测和诊断,并能够基于已知变量估计未知变量的后验概率。拟议的方法已经生成了一个包含港口变量的数据库,该数据库已被分类为经济,社会,环境和体制,这在西班牙所有港口系统中进行的智能港口研究中都已提及。网络是使用无环有向图开发的,它使我们知道了父母和儿子之间的关系。从概率上讲,可以从构建的网络得出结论,港口可持续性的最决定性变量是那些属于制度维度的变量。已经得出结论,即使在港口规划和开发中发生的变量数量很高的情况下,贝叶斯网络也可以概率性地对不确定性进行建模。

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