Evolution of NOsubx/sub emissions in Europe with focus on road transport control measures

摘要

European emission trends of nitrogen oxides since 1880 and up to present arepresented here and are linked to the evolution of road transport emissions.Road transport has been the dominating source of NO_x emissions since1970, and contributes with 40% to the total emissions in 2005. Five trendregimes have been identified between 1880 and 2005. The first regime(1880–1950) is determined by a slow increase in fuel consumption all overEurope. The second regime (1950–1980) is characterized by a continued steepupward trend in liquid fuel use and by the introduction of the firstregulations on road traffic emissions. Reduction in fuel consumptiondetermines the emission trends in the third regime (1980–1990) that is alsocharacterized by important differences between Eastern and Western Europe.Emissions from road traffic continue to grow in Western Europe in thisperiod, and it is argued here that the reason for this continued NO_xemission increase is related to early inefficient regulations for NO_xin the transport sector. The fourth regime (1990–2000) involves a turningpoint for road traffic emissions, with a general decrease of emissions inEurope during that decade. It is in this period that we can identify thefirst emission reductions due to technological abatement in Western Europe.In the fifth regime (2000–2005), the economic recovery in Eastern Europeimposes increased emission from road traffic in this area. Western Europeanemissions are on the other hand decoupled from the fuel consumption, andcontinue to decrease. The implementation of strict measures to controlNO_x emissions is demonstrated here to be a main reason for thecontinued Western European emission reductions. The results indicate thateven though the effectiveness of European standards is hampered by a slowvehicle turnover, loopholes in the type-approval testing, and an increase indiesel consumption, the effect of such technical abatement measures istraceable in the evolution of European road traffic emissions over the last15 years.