MANAGING HAJJ CROWD COMPLEXITY: SUPERIOR THROUGHPUT, SATISFACTION, HEALTH, & SAFETY

摘要

Mass gatherings (MGs) are common phenomena with diverse crowd types and inherent problems, which need to be managed according to their level of complexity and potential of fatal outcomes. As such, for simple recurring MGs it is pragmatic to provide public health and safety through legislation and guidelines; whereas, complex infrequent MGs require specialized research and management. The Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) technique can provide insight into complex MGs by modeling micro level participant behavior to simulate emergent crowd behavior. The complex annual Hajj MG with its challenging Tawaf ritual is modeled using the ABMS technique to explore the impact of crowd characteristics, facility layout, and management preferences on emergent crowd performance with respect to throughput, satisfaction, health, and safety. The Tawaf ABMS simulator developed is called TawafSIM, which is the most comprehensive Tawaf simulator across multiple dimensions. It calculates eight metrics for Tawaf performance, which includes one for throughput, three for satisfaction, one for health, and three for safety. It is the only Tawaf simulator to estimate satisfaction and spread of infectious disease. It conducts 42 simulation experiments in 12 categories, which generate emergent, tipping point, expected, and counter intuitive behaviors. It recommends a default scenario as the recommended decision along with a small subset of alternative scenarios, which provide above average Tawaf performance. It generates a Tawaf Crowd Management Guide to understand Tawaf crowd dynamics and pursue above average Tawaf performance under different conditions.