Future of agricultural water management in Europe based on socioeconomic indices

摘要

The aim of this paper is estimation of area equipped for irrigation in Europe in 2035 and 2060 using study of agricultural water management from 1962 to 2011. For this purpose, all necessary information was gathered from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and checked using The World Bank Group (WBG). Among all presented data in the FAO database, 10 indices were selected (due to more importance and more availability for all the regions in Europe). The selected indices were analyzed for all 5 regions in the study area and value of area equipped for irrigation to cultivated area (10th index) was estimated by three different scenarios and using the other 9 indices. Eastern Europe has a better potential to increasing area equipped for irrigation in the future. Although we can estimate area equipped for irrigation for after 2060, it is advised that we update our information every year, every decade, or at least every half of century. The results show that changes of area equipped for irrigation is 6.4% to 40.9% and 27.2% to 83.5% in 2035 and 2060, respectively.