Future inclusive wealth and human well-being in regional Japan: projections of sustainability indices based on shared socioeconomic pathways

摘要

This paper evaluates whether future societal trajectories for Japan will occur along sustainable pathways. This work first provides future scenarios for different regions in Japan based on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Then, we project the inclusive wealth index (IWI) under different future scenarios for 2015-2100. We find that future Japan retains sustainability under all SSPs in 2100 through a comparison with the level of wealth in 2010. However, the trends of IWI per capita are U-shaped, and different regions in Japan will face difficulties caused by unsustainability in the early stages. We also investigate subjective well-being in these projections. Surprisingly, we observe an increase in the well-being index under all SSPs except for SSP5, which focused on promoting economic growth and not on conserving biodiversity. This study provides a framework for evaluating the sustainability of regions, and many indicators are captured in a single index.