The surface climatology of the eastern Mediterranean region obtained in a three-member ensemble climate change simulation experiment

摘要

Two configurations of RegCM3 regional climate model (RCM) have been used todownscale results of two atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM)simulations of the current (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100) overthe eastern Mediterranean (EM) region. The RCM domain covering the EM regionfrom northern Africa to central part of Asia Minor with grid spacing of 50 kmwas used. Three sets of RCM simulations were completed. Results of theRCM experiment support earlier projections of a temperature (annualprecipitation) increase (decrease) to the end of 21st century over theEM. The roles of several major factors in controlling uncertainty of theclimate change estimates are evaluated. The main uncertainty factors appear to be associatedwith possible inadequacies in RCM description of the EM-climate-controllingdevelopments over remotely located areas as well as those in the simulationsof the global climate and its trends by the AOGCMs.