A double-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the Eastern Mediterranean region

摘要

A double-resolution regional experiment on hydro-dynamic simulation of climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region was performed using an International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste RegCM3 model. The RegCM3 was driven from the lateral boundaries by the data from the ECHAM5/MPI-0M global climate simulation performed at the MPI-M, Hamburg and based on the A1B IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emission. Two simulation runs for the time period 1960-2060, employing spatial resolutions of 50 km/ 14 L and 25 km/18 L, are realized. Time variations of the differences in the space distributions of simulated climate parameters are analyzed to evaluate the role of smaller scale effects. Both least-square linear and non-linear trends of several characteristics of the EM climate are evaluated in the study. One of the key findings with regard to linear trends is a notable and statistically significant precipitation drop over the near coastal EM zone during December-February and September-November. Statistically significant positive air temperature trends are projected over the entire EM region during the four seasons. Also projected are increases in air temperature extremes and the relative contribution of convective processes in the Southern Mediterranean coastal zone (ECM) region. A notable sensitivity of projected larger-scale climate change signals to smaller-scale effects is also demonstrated.