Stochastic precipitation modeling using circulation patterns to analyze climate impact on floods

摘要

This paper presents the conditioning of a precipitation model to objectivelyclassified circulation patterns (CP). The application of CPs is considereduseful with regards to model accuracy improvement and preparation of adownscaling model by using CPs classified with climate model data. As thisstudy aims to produce rainfall as input for derived flood frequencyanalyses, the validation focuses on extreme values and precipitation events.The analysis is carried out by modifications of a well tested alternatingrenewal precipitation model.