Parametric cost estimation model for aircraft based on fractal theory

摘要

Fractal theory possesses a congenital application foundation in Parametric Cost Estimation(PCE). Based on the fractal theory, a core equation of fractal parameters has been established, and on this basis, a grey fractal parametric cost estimation model is established by taking the comprehensive efficiency variables as the fractal variables, which is applicable to the early cost evaluation of aircraft manufacture. Example analysis shows: the aircraft cost estimation by the fractal parametric cost estimation model achieves desirable accuracy, and is superior to the method of conventional multiple linear regression in generalization ability and stability. Meanwhile, it can be concluded that efficiency is effective as the fractal unit and the cost has the fractal characteristics as the information set, which provide new ideas and methods for cost estimation.