基于三参数区间灰数的变电站全寿命周期成本估算模型应用

摘要

In process of cost estimation,substation may be affected by many uncertain factors.In order to quantitatively ana-lyzing impact on management decision result by these uncertain factors,a kind of full life-cycle cost estimation model based on three parameters interval grey number was proposed.Firstly,three parameters interval grey number was used for quanti-tative analysis on uncertainty of cost estimation.Then,aiming at capital input cost,operation and maintenance cost,over-haul cost,fault cost(risk cost)and decommissioning disposal cost in substation full life-cycle,net present value conversion method was used for estimating.According to principles of full life-cycle,costs of three parameters interval grey number of each scheme were worked out and alternatives of economy of schemes were ranked.Finally,by comparing scheme selection for some new established substation and method for internal quantitative full life-cycle cost referred in document [1 ],effec-tiveness and feasibility of this method was explained and proved.%变电站在进行成本估算时会受到许多不确定因素的影响,为量化分析这种不确定性因素对管理决策结果的影响,基于变电站全寿命周期成本(full life-cycle cost,LCC),提出了一种基于三参数区间灰数的变电站全寿命周期成本估算模型。该模型首先采用了三参数区间灰数来量化成本估算时的不确定性,然后采用净现值折算的方法针对变电站全寿命周期内发生的资本性投入成本、运维成本、检修成本、故障成本(风险成本)、退役处置成本这五大成本进行估算,进而依据全寿命周期的原理求出各方案三参数区间灰数形式的成本大小对各方案经济性的优劣进行排序。最后,通过以某新建变电站方案选型为例与文献[1]以区间数量化全寿命周期成本的方法进行对比,说明了该方法的有效性和可行性。