Microeconomic Theory Applied to Parametric Cost Estimation of Aircraft Airframes.

摘要

The theories of microeconomics and optimal control were used to formulate a parametric cost estimation model that provides an insight into the cost flow of an aircraft airframe production program. The model developed uses original total airframe quantity (volume) and initial total production contract time, as well as the traditional values of cumulative quantity, AMPR weight, and speed, as explanatory variables. A form of the model was solved by both a constrained least squares approach and by a nonlinear algorithm with similar results. In the analysis of the model the parameters of volume and time were not found to be statistically significant. The surrogate variables of actual contract volume and time do not explain a significant amount of the total program cost. Several reasons are offered in the thesis. Validation of the model indicates that it is a highly satisfactory estimator of total program cost.