UNITED STATES

摘要

The final release of the Q2 national accounts continued to improve on the upbeat picture painted in the preliminary and advance reports. Insteadof growing by 3.7% (q-o-qannualized), GDP expanded by 3.9%. The contribution from domestic final sales to Q2 GDP was also stronger: business investment soared by 4.1 % (instead of 3.2%) and personal consumption by 3.6% (instead of 3.1 %). Lower gasoline prices have helped to free up disposable incomes; in August, real personal spending accelerated to 0.4% (m-o-m) from 0.3% in the previous month, while real disposable income maintained a relatively solid 0.3% rate. Both core and headline inflation in the US economy remain soft. Going into Q3, the momentum in activity faltered. External-oriented sectors like energy and manufacturing have been especially affected by a strong US dollar, slumping oil prices and financial market volatility. Industrial production contracted by 0.4% (m-o-m) in August while new orders for factory goods fell by 1.7% (m-o-m). With September's ISM index for manufacturing ebbing (albeit still in growth territory), our panel's outlook for industrial production has been downgraded again.