UNITED STATES

摘要

Growth Shattered By Disease Spread The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that the Covid-19 pandemic halted the longest expansion in US history. Advance Q1 GDP declined by -4.8% (q-o-q annualized), its worst print since Q4 2008 (-8.4%). Domestic demand and inventories both subtracted heavily. Consumption contracted by -7.6% (q-o-q annualized) which would have been worse were it not for a +6.9% annualized increase in non-durables spending (due to panic-buying). Services spending was, not surprisingly, especially affected, contracting by -10.6% as expenditures on healthcare, leisure, restaurants and transportation recorded double-digit declines. April's ISM services survey saw an even deeper plunge to 41.8% from 52.5% in March. Business investment had already fallen in three previous quarters and added a fourth straight fall, of -8.6% following a -2.5% drop in Q4 2019. Industry has been badly hit by downed supply chains and wiped-out demand. Factory orders sank by -10.3% (m-o-m) in March while durables fell -14.7%. Car production and purchases have plunged, and our panel's industrial production projection stands at -9.0%.