EURO ZONE

摘要

GDP barely grew by 0.1% (q-o-q) in Q4, while Euro area industrial production fell by -2.1% (m-o-m) in December compared with flat growth in November. The latter was not surprising given the sharp drops recorded in German, French and Italian output. In y-o-y terms, the industrial decline deepened to -3.5%. Weakness was broad-based: capital, intermediate, durable and non-durable goods output all suffered declines, as did energy production. Industry in 2019 was hit by external, trade-war-fuelled uncertainty which weighed on German factory activity in particular. Going into 2020, business sentiment appeared to have turned a corner amid fading trade-related risks between the US and China. However, the disruption to China's factories from coronavirus is hitting global supply chains as well as Chinese demand. European carmakers warn of potential component shortages during Q1 at least, and forecasts for GDP and production have dropped. The 2020 import growth outlook has also faltered as domestic demand remains relatively muted.