UNITED STATES

摘要

The second Q3 GDP report showed a modest upward revision from 1.9% (q-o-q annualized) in last month's release to 2.0%, mainly due to an upgrade in inventories. Personal consumption rose 2.9% following a 4.6% surge in Q2, which could point to the fading impact of tax cuts. Business investment stayed negative, at an annualized -2.7%, while pre-tax corporate profits managed only a negligible 0.9% in Q3. This compared with a 16.0% surge in Q2. Investment has been in the doldrums amid concerns over trade. While some reports purport that the first round of trade negotiations between the US and China may be reaching a conclusion, the President tweeted that resolution could be postponed until after the November 2020 election. However, there are signs that the downturn in business spending may already have bottomed out, with the October factory goods report underscoring a positive 1.1% (m-o-m) rebound in core capital goods orders. Core capital shipments also advanced strongly. Other data point to firmer-than-expected fundamentals going into Q4 which indicates that the economy is bucking fears of possible recession next year. October retail sales were solid rather than resurgent, but early indications of strong Black Friday/Cyber Monday receipts hint at consumer activity ending the year on an upbeat note. Interest rate cuts, low mortgage costs, and an extended jobs expansion have all helped to support spending. Payrolls, which had appeared to be moderating somewhat in recent months, soared by 266,000 in November. This month the outlook for the unemployment rate in 2020 has even ticked down to 3.6%.