UNITED STATES

摘要

The advance Q3 national accounts release was better than many observers had been expecting, at 1.9% (q-o-q annualized). This was in line with the previous quarter's 2.0% pace but down from the 3.1% jump recorded in Q1. GDP growth was boosted by consumers and inventories: a 2.9% annualized jump in real disposable income supported a same-size increase in personal consumption. This moderated from the 4.6% surge recorded in Q2 but was still firm, even as base effects from tax cuts start to fade. Meanwhile, inventories continued to grow strongly in Q3, by US$69.0bn, despite businesses reining in expenditure and production having declined in m-o-m terms throughout much of 2019. Industrial activity has been largely affected by the US-China trade dispute which has hit supply chains, raised the cost of raw materials and hurt demand for US exports. These factors are also weighing on business investment, which deepened its contraction from -1.0% (q-o-q annualized) in Q2 to -3.0% in Q3. Meanwhile, September's new manufacturing orders fell more than expected, by -0.6% (m-o-m), while core capital goods orders excluding aircraft also contracted by -0.6%. The worry is that the ongoing pullback in business investment will eventually hit employment.