UNITED STATES

摘要

With bond yields low, investors piling into gold, and the stock market shaky, some observers wonder if these financial movements might be a harbinger of looming recession. So far, the hard data suggests a manageable slowdown for the US and not an outright contraction. Our panel's GDP forecast for this year remains relatively unchanged at 2.3% before easing to 1.8% in 2020. However, the ongoing trade war with China continues to raise uncertainty and downside risks over the outlook. September saw increases in tariffs on some Chinese goods which will likely trickle down to price rises for the US consumer. Elsewhere, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped from 134.2 in August to 125.1 in September. The report noted weakening sentiment over jobs, and indeed, September's labor market release cited a very modest easing in payrolls, from 168,000 in the previous month to 136,000. This still represents a solid pace of job creation, however. A moderation in personal spending could be on the horizon, especially after it advanced at its fastest annualized pace (4.6%) in Q2 for four-and-a-half years. However, there may be more acute signs of weakness in investment and production indicators.