ITALY

摘要

With GDP growth almost at a standstill, the consensus forecast for 2019 has slipped back to zero, as respondents remain pessimistic on the chances of a rebound later in the year. An extended soft patch appears the most likely scenario, due to sluggish private consumption and uncertainty around the resilience of external demand. Exports bolstered the economy in Q1 - partly the result of muted import demand -yet the turbulent international trade environment poses doubts as to whether this can be sustained. Consumer spending also remains chronically weak, despite a prolonged stint of low inflation and interest rates. Simultaneously, consumer confidence has been on adownward trajectory, sliding sharply in June, despite reports of a slight boost in jobs data. The employment rate reached 59% in May, while the jobless rate dropped below 10%. Little change in the inactivity rate, however, may point to structural issues which are thwarting meaningful and sustained improvement in the labour market. Elsewhere, industrial production avoided a third successive monthly decline as it advanced by 0.9% (m-o-m) in May. June's manufacturing PMI was stuck below the neutral 50 mark for an eleventh straight month, though, underlining the prospect of a contraction in industrial output this year.