Urban floorspace distribution and development prediction based on floorspace development model

摘要

Floorspace spatial development is indisputably the most essential indicator to reflect the spatial distribution of activities especially in mega cities. To forecast the housing floorspace distribution, a three-step Floorspace Development Model (FDM) is developed in this study based on indicators of permissible development constrains, floorspace areas, and house rents. Beijing is selected as the case study area in consideration of its high house price and limited space. Since government plays a key role in the estate development in China, the housing floorspace is estimated through three steps including unconstrained floorspace estimation, constrained floor space estimation, and zonal floorspace allocation. This FDM model is applicable to forecast the developers' decisions based on market rules and government policies, which combines China's special conditions with prediction method perfectly for the first time. Based on this model, floorspace distribution and development prediction can be achieved, laying a solid foundation for assessments of servicing, industrial and educational floorspace development and distribution at urban scale especially mega cities in China.