A Computer Model for Selecting Facility Evacuation Design Using Cellular Automata

摘要

New construction must comply with building codes to ensure safety performance. However, the code itself is insufficient to provide information regarding hazard mitigation performance of a facility design. This paper proposes a computer simulation model for selecting the facility design for emergency evacuation that includes a pedestrian model and a selection model. A cellular automaton model of pedestrian movements with three-dimensional visualization is implemented and calibrated. Unlike previous studies that focus on behavior theories and ignore model calibration, this paper calibrates the pedestrian model with empirical data at the macroscopic level (flow, density, and speed). After candidate facility designs are evaluated with the calibrated model, a two-stage procedure is used for the statistical selection of the alternatives. As a result, the best design can be selected with a pre-determined probability of correct selection and targeted difference between the best and the second-best systems. Moreover, the required number of repetitions can be calculated in advance to avoid incorrect selection or unnecessary work. The procedure proposed is, thus, an effective and efficient tool for facility design.