Data-space inversion with ensemble smoother

摘要

Reservoir engineers use large-scale numerical models to predict the production performance in oil and gas fields. However, these models are constructed based on scarce and often inaccurate data, making their predictions highly uncertain. On the other hand, measurements of pressure and flow rates are constantly collected during the operation of the field. The assimilation of these data into the reservoir models (history matching) helps to mitigate uncertainty and improve their predictive capacity. History matching is a nonlinear inverse problem, which is typically handled using optimization and Monte Carlo methods. In practice, however, generating a set of properly history-matched models that preserve the geological realism is very challenging, especially in cases with intricate prior description, such as models with fractures and complex facies distributions. Recently, a new data-space inversion (DSI) approach was introduced in the literature as an alternative to the model-space inversion used in history matching. The essential idea is to update directly the predictions from a prior ensemble of models to account for the observed production history without updating the corresponding models. The present paper introduces a DSI implementation based on the use of an iterative ensemble smoother and demonstrates with examples that the new implementation is computationally faster and more robust than the earlier method based on principal component analysis and gradient-driven optimization. The new DSI is also applied to estimate the production forecast in a real field with long production history and a large number of wells. For this field problem, the new DSI obtained forecasts comparable with a more traditional ensemble-based history matching.