A STUDY ON PREDICTION SYSTEM OF CRITICAL WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SHIP MOORING AGAINST TYPHOONS

摘要

Mooring problems are still serious issues in port construction and operation. Although many studies have been carried out about moored ship motions or waves, effective coun-termeasures to reduce ship motions have not been accomplished in most harbours facing open seas. It is known that operators require detailed wave information near harbours when sea conditions become severe. In this study, a new numerical model is constructed for the prediction of the mooring limit condition due to typhoons. It is based on the theories of Kalman Filter, wave growth inside typhoons and wave decay in swells. The prediction model needs less input data than the meteorological models. The accuracy of the predicted model is verified for a port facing the Pacific Ocean when swells or wind waves propagate from typhoons in various situations. The prediction model is applied to other locations facing the Pacific Ocean. This new model allows us to predict the mooring limit condition 0.5-2 days before the influence of typhoons. Moreover, we propose a berth operation system to monitor the mooring limit condition using this prediction model in harbours facing open seas.