The focus of this study is on the preparatory detection of uncertain greenhouse gas (GHG) emission changes (also termed emission signals) under the Kyoto Protocol. Preparatory signal detection is a measure that should be taken prior to/during negotiation of the Protocol. It allows the ranking of countries under the Protocol according to their realized versus their agreed emission changes and in terms of both certainty and credibility. Controlling GHGs is affected by uncertainty and may be costly. Thus, knowing whether each nation is doing its part is in the public interest. At present, however, countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are obliged to include in the reporting of their annual inventories direct or alternative estimates of the uncertainty associated with these, consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) good practice guidance reports. As a consequence, inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol. Although uncertainties are becoming increasingly available, monitored emissions and uncertainties are still dealt with separately. In our study we analyze estimates of both emission changes and uncertainties to advance the evaluation of countries and their performance under the Protocol. Our analysis allows supply and demand of emissions credits to be examined in consideration of uncertainty. For the purpose of our exercise, we make use of the Undershooting and Verification Time concept described by Jonas et al. (Clim Change doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9914-6, 2010).
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