Seasonal Slowing and Inventory Corrections Pave Way for 2H 04 Rebound?

摘要

The "global recovery" continues but the path ahead is not with-out some bumps and detours. Based upon recent semiconductor shipment data (Chart 1) all regions are on a generally upward trend but of course SE Asia is leading the race— now consuming about 42% of the world's chips. In the U.S. electronic equipment orders posted back-to-back declines in April and May after some robust growth in fall 2003 and again in early 2004 (Chart 2). OEMs and EMS companies that had shifted into a bit of a component panic buying mood earlier this year finally realized that they had been slightly over zealous (in the face of "cooling" end-market demand) and started cutting orders in late spring. As a result the N. American rigid PCB book/bill dropped to 0.90 in May. Both PCB and electronic equipment three-month growth rates made a "sanity correction" (Chart 3)— trending back down to more sustainable targets of 10-15%.