10 Business Cycles in 25 Years

摘要

Those who have been in our industry for a while have learned to accept the cyclical nature of our business. Reaching into the archives Chart 1 shows the ten business cycles we have lived through from 1980 to 2005. A few comments apply: 1. PCB cycles are typically time-wise "in sync" with electronic equipment. However in times of rapid expansion (and panic buying) PCBs lead equipment. 1984 and 2000 are good examples. 2. The magnitude of the peaks depends upon the end market drivers (personal computer boom, Dot.com bubble). High volume consumer fads can lead to extreme boom cycles. 3. Large troughs are usually related to excess inventory issues. The "Asian shift" of 2001-2003 amplified N. America's traumatic post-2000 PCB downturn. Inventory overhangs made it worse.