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Agent-based simulation of innovation diffusion: a review

机译:基于主体的创新扩散模拟:回顾

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Mathematical modeling of innovation diffusion has attracted strong academic interest since the early 1960s. Traditional diffusion models have aimed at empirical generalizations and hence describe the spread of new products parsimoniously at the market level. More recently, agent-based modeling and simulation has increasingly been adopted since it operates on the individual level and, thus, can capture complex emergent phenomena highly relevant in diffusion research. Agent-based methods have been applied in this context both as intuition aids that facilitate theory-building and as tools to analyze real-world scenarios, support management decisions and obtain policy recommendations. This review addresses both streams of research. We critically examine the strengths and limitations of agent-based modeling in the context of innovation diffusion, discuss new insights agent-based models have provided, and outline promising opportunities for future research. The target audience of the paper includes both researchers in marketing interested in new findings from the agent-based modeling literature and researchers who intend to implement agent-based models for their own research endeavors. Accordingly, we also cover pivotal modeling aspects in depth (concerning, e.g., consumer adoption behavior and social influence) and outline existing models in sufficient detail to provide a proper entry point for researchers new to the field.
机译:自1960年代初以来,创新扩散的数学模型引起了浓厚的学术兴趣。传统的扩散模型的目标是经验概括,因此在市场水平上同时描述了新产品的扩散。最近,基于代理的建模和仿真已越来越多地被采用,因为它在个体级别上运行,因此可以捕获与扩散研究高度相关的复杂的新兴现象。在这种情况下,基于代理的方法既用作促进理论构建的直觉辅助工具,又用作分析现实情况,支持管理决策和获得政策建议的工具。这篇综述涉及这两个研究领域。我们将在创新扩散的背景下严格审查基于代理的建模的优势和局限性,讨论基于代理的模型提供的新见解,并概述未来研究的有希望的机会。本文的目标受众包括对基于代理建模文献的新发现感兴趣的市场营销研究人员,以及打算为自己的研究工作实施基于代理模型的研究人员。因此,我们还将深入探讨关键的建模方面(例如,关于消费者采用行为和社会影响力),并以足够详细的方式概述现有模型,以便为刚进入该领域的研究人员提供适当的切入点。

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