AVIC forecasts China’s jet freighter fleet to triple by 2038. The Aviation Industry Corporation of China forecasts China’s jet freighter fleet to more than triple over the next twenty years, growing to 723 units, up from about 160 today. While the company expects narrowbody freighters to comprise the bulk of the fleet in 2038 when an expected 330 units will be in service, large and medium widebody fleets are projected to grow to 174 and 219 units, respectively. AVIC’s figures assume the emergence of one to two homegrown express carriers with networks on par with current global heavyweights such as FedEx, UPS and DHL. Although cargo tonnage carried by China-based carriers has not been growing at a rate that would immediately suggest rapid fleet growth (see CFC Insights Air Express Market Outlook for more), AVIC’s forecast assumes a continued shift in the belly-to-freighter ratio that favors freighter aircraft. Of the air cargo moved by China-based operators, AVIC estimates that freighters carry just under 45% of the FTKs. By 2038, this figure is expected to reach 55%, thanks to growth in China’s domestic express networks.
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