On the relationship between urban size and urban growth: An analysis of 135 Canadian urban areas between 1971 and 2011

摘要

Using an econometric urban growth model, the analysis seeks to identify the determinants of growth for 135 Canadian urban areas over a 40-year period (1971-2011). Models are estimated for the whole period and for two sub-periods. The dependent variable (urban growth) is defined in two distinct ways: more traditionally, as percentage population changes, and as rank changes (ordinal growth). Comparing results with different dependent variables brings out the indirect role of (initial) urban size as a determinant of growth. On the one hand, the results confirm the absence of a direct relationship between initial size and growth, in line with other studies. On the other hand, results with alternative dependent variables (rank changes or weighted observations) point to a positive size effect.