A proposed pedestrian waiting-time model for improving space—time use efficiency in stadium evacuation scenarios

摘要

Efficiency is a fundamental requirement in evacuation planning and operations. The "faster-is-slower" phenomenon in pedestrian evacuation has been observed and deemed a significant obstacle to evacuation efficiency. This paper thus focuses on two aspects of evacuation planning in the case of stadium evacuation. The first is to define a space—time use efficiency measure for evaluating the utility of both space and time resources. The second is to propose a pedestrian waiting-time model for directing evacuees to alleviate evacuation bottlenecks. An agent-based simulation approach was employed to test the proposed model in stadium evacuation scenarios. The results demonstrate that compelled, or mandatory, waiting time strategy generated by this model is helpful in improving the space-time use efficiency of network links in the evacuation process by virtue of the strategically timed moving-waiting -restarting movement pattern of evacuees. The analysis of space-time evacuation paths in this study provides a practical and insightful alternative for measuring evacuation effectiveness. Results of this study compared reasonably against an existing cellular automaton based simulation both in microscopic and macroscopic perspectives. A number of future research directions were presented.