A Literature Survey and Experimental Evaluation of the State-of-the-Art in Uplift Modeling: A Stepping Stone Toward the Development of Prescriptive Analytics

摘要

Prescriptive analytics extends on predictive analytics by allowing to estimate an outcome in function of control variables, allowing as such to establish the required level of control variables for realizing a desired outcome. Uplift modeling is at the heart of prescriptive analytics and aims at estimating the net difference in an outcome resulting from a specific action or treatment that is applied. In this article, a structured and detailed literature survey on uplift modeling is provided by identifying and contrasting various groups of approaches. In addition, evaluation metrics for assessing the performance of uplift models are reviewed. An experimental evaluation on four real-world data sets provides further insight into their use. Uplift random forests are found to be consistently among the best performing techniques in terms of the Qini and Gini measures, although considerable variability in performance across the various data sets of the experiments is observed. In addition, uplift models are frequently observed to be unstable and display a strong variability in terms of performance across different folds in the cross-validation experimental setup. This potentially threatens their actual use for business applications. Moreover, it is found that the available evaluation metrics do not provide an intuitively understandable indication of the actual use and performance of a model. Specifically, existing evaluation metrics do not facilitate a comparison of uplift models and predictive models and evaluate performance either at an arbitrary cutoff or over the full spectrum of potential cutoffs. In conclusion, we highlight the instability of uplift models and the need for an application-oriented approach to assess uplift models as prime topics for further research.