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Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

机译:谎言,该死的谎言和统计

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As scientists, IPNI encourages farmers and advisers to seek out evidence when assessing options such as new fertilizer products or formulations. In a presentation, a graph or table may be shown with a comment like "....it is clear from this that...." and proceed to describe how the data supports the argument or point to be made. But the truth is not always that clear. We are all very good at fitting patterns to the things we see to fit them into the scheme of things we understand-or think we understand. In fact the human mind is very adept at pattern recognition-just think how subtle are the differences in the faces we pass in the street-but how clearly we can recognize a friend when they appear.
机译:作为科学家,IPNI鼓励农民和顾问在评估新肥料产品或配方等选择方案时寻找证据。在演示文稿中,可能会在图形或表格上显示“ .....很显然....”这样的注释,然后继续描述数据如何支持参数或要提出的观点。但事实并非总是那么清楚。我们所有人都非常擅长将模式适应于我们所看到的事物,以使它们适合我们所理解或认为我们所理解的事物的方案。实际上,人类的大脑非常擅长模式识别-只是想想我们在街上经过的面孔的差异有多微妙,但是当朋友出现时我们能多么清晰地认出他们。

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