Conceptual framework for adaptive management of coupled human and natural systems with respect to climate change uncertainty

摘要

Managers of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) face the challenging task of managing those systems when there is uncertainty about future changes in drivers of the outcomes of management actions. To assist in meeting that challenge, a fuzzy, multiple-objective, passive adaptive management (AM) framework is developed that can be used to determine preferred management actions for multiple planning periods when there is uncertainty about one or more system drivers. The proposed framework requires: (1) selecting management actions and objectives; (2) establishing standards for objectives; (3) choosing budgets, drivers, and driver scenarios; (4) estimating management objectives; (5) identifying acceptable management actions; (6) determining preferred management actions; and (7) evaluating whether or not passive AM is advantageous. The framework is demonstrated for managing a hypothetical highway corridor in a national park based on four objectives pertaining to the corridor: (1) minimising congestion at the visitor centre parking lot; (2) maximising plant biodiversity along hiking trails; (3) minimising soil erosion on hiking trails; and (4) minimising congestion on hiking trails when there is uncertainty about future climate change. The proposed framework is easier for managers to understand and apply than other fuzzy decision-making frameworks.