Extreme Wind Regime Responses To Climate Variability And Change In The Inner South Coast Of British Columbia, Canada

摘要

This study shows how information about climate variability can be valuable to the understanding of wind regime responses and improvement of wind forecasting skill. To this end we demonstrate the use and value of climate information in accurately determining extreme wind recurrences at three locations on the inner south coast of British Columbia (48°-49°N, 123°W). The methodology is primarily based on approximating a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) to extreme winds in the presence of climate variability covariates. The long-term hourly wind speed data maintained by the Meteorological Service of Canada are used to evaluate the possible influence of climate variability on extreme wind response. Preliminary results suggest that there are significantly different extreme wind responses to warm and cold El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modes, with a tendency for high extreme winds to occur during the negative (i.e., cold) ENSO phase.