A New Estimation at Completion of Project’s Time and Cost Approach Based on Particle Filter

摘要

Estimation at completion is an important tool for supervising the performance and risk of each project, in order to estimate the project completion time and final cost. This calculation is one of the most important goals of project managing. In this paper, a newestimation at completion approach is presented for estimation of finishing time and final cost of the project. The innovation of this paper can be organized as using particle filter as one of the strong nonlinear filtering methods for next estimation state of the system by using smoothed data which is done by filter itself, based on autoregressive fitted model. After estimating next states, it will be possible to predict system’s reaction in later seconds and the time and cost of finishing the project are estimated for comparing the performance and efficiency of invented method. The simulation results demonstrate the performance of proposed scheme in comparison with older approach.