Warranty cost estimation based on computing a projected number of failures of products

摘要

#$%^&*AU2015204320A120160204.pdf#####ABSTRACT WARRANTY COST ESTIMATION BASED ON COMPUTING A PROJECTED NUMBER OF FAILURES OF PRODUCTS Estimating warranty cost of products having multiple parts is described. In an 5 implementation, part-failure data indicative of number of cycles at which each part fails in and after a first predefined time period is determined. Sensor data and service records data are obtained to determine DTC occurrence data and DTC observance data. The DTC occurrence data and the DTC observance data are indicative of number of cycles at which each DTC associated with each part 10 occurs and is observed for first time in the first predefined time period, respectively. Dependency parameters between the part-failure data, the DTC occurrence data and the DTC observance data are identified based on Bayesian Network that represents probabilistic relationships between the part-failure data, the DTC occurrence data and the DTC observance data. Number of failures of 15 products in a second predefined time period is computed based on the dependency parameters for estimating the warranty cost. 373/3 300 302 DETERMINING PART-FAILURE DATA, WHERE THE PART-FAILURE DATA IS INDICATIVE OF NUMBER OF CYCLES AT WHICH EACH PART OF PRODUCTS FAILS IN AND AFTER A FIRST PREDEFINED TIME PERIOD 304 OBTAINING SENSOR DATA OF THE PRODUCTS TO DETERMINE DTC OCCURRENCE DATA, WHERE THE DTC OCCURRENCE DATA IS INDICATIVE OF NUMBER OF CYCLES AT WHICH EACH DTC ASSOCIATED WITH EACH PART OCCURS FOR FIRST TIME IN THE FIRST PREDEFINED TIME PERIOD -0 306 OBTAINING SERVICE RECORDS DATA OF THE PRODUCTS TO DETERMINING DTC OBSERVANCE DATA, WHERE THE DTC OBSERVANCE DATA IS INDICATIVE OF NUMBER OF CYCLES AT WHICH EACH DTC ASSOCIATED WITH EACH PART IS OBSERVED FOR FIRST TIME IN THE FIRST PREDEFINED TIME PERIOD 308 IDENTIFYING DEPENDENCY PARAMETERS BETWEEN THE PARTFAILURE DATA, THE DTC OCCURRENCE DATA AND THE DTC OBSERVANCE DATA, WHERE THE IDENTIFYING IS BASED ON BAYESIAN NETWORK THAT REPRESENTS PROBABILISTIC RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE PART-FAILURE DATA, THE DTC OCCURRENCE DATA AND THE DTC OBSERVANCE DATA 310 'COMPUTING NUMBER OF FAILURES OF THE PRODUCTS IN A SECOND TIME PERIOD BASED ON THE DEPENDENCY PARAMETERS FOR ESTIMATING THE WARRANTY COST, WHEREIN THE SECOND TIME PERIOD IS INDICATIVE OF TIME AFTER THE FIRST TIME PERIOD Fig. 3