Testing the expectations hypothesis in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis

摘要

In this article the expectations hypothesis (EH) is tested using cointegration techniques, for maturities ranging from 1 to 12 months, for the Brazilian market. We found evidence suggesting that, for the period 1995-2006, the cointegration implication generally seems to hold. We also found strong evidence supporting causality from short to long rates and also in the opposite direction. Empirical evidence supports the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates.