Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs

摘要

Dating the regional business cycle phases using a multi-level Markov-switching model revealed that the regional cycle phase transition probability depends on the national cycle phase, although the propagation speed of the national phase into a regional cycle varies across the regions. The estimation of the national factor loadings on regional economies showed that the response of a regional economy to a national impact is mostly greater during a national contraction phase.