Economic Analysis of Effects of Business Cycles on the Economy of Cities: Components of Regional Employment Change Over the Business Cycle

摘要

This study explores regional variations in employment during business cycles and cross-regional variations of central city cycles, using a data base compiled from the Dun and Bradstreet Market Indicator files of firms in three categories: machine tools, electronic components, and motor vehicles. To permit analysis of employment changes over cycles, data were obtained for the peak year of 1973, the trough year of 1975, the peak year of 1979, and the recession year of 1982. The study indicates that over the long term, regional growth differentials favoring the Sunbelt were caused by relatively high expansion rates in the Southern States as well as by high employment gains due to establishment births. The South appeared to experience cycles that were relatively volatile compared to those of the North. Expansions and contractions in continuing southern firms, however, did not fluctuate with the business cycle. The cyclical sensitivity of the South is better explained by the volatility of employment growth due to establishment births minus establishment closings. Regional differences among central cities in the cyclical sensitivity of employment were evident, but no North - South patterns arose. The results do not support the hypothesis that old capital regions are more cyclically sensitive than the new capital regions; that labor - intensive, low - wage regions are more sensitive than capital - intensive ones; or that heavily unionized, high unemployment - insurance benefit regions are more cyclically sensitive. Data tables and about 40 references are included.