Heterogeneous Beliefs and School Choice Mechanisms

摘要

This paper studies the performance of a centralized school choice mechanism that rewards strategic behavior when households have heterogeneous beliefs about placement probabilities. We conduct a household survey asking choice participants about their preferences and beliefs, and link our survey data to administrative records of the school choice process. We use our linked data to describe heterogeneity in beliefs and to estimate a model of school choice that allows for belief and preference heterogeneity. Our survey data allow us to study the effects of coun-terfactual policies without making strong assumptions on participants' equilibrium play. The counterfactuals we consider highlight the trade-off between applicants' ability to express preference intensity in mechanisms that reward strategic play and the increased likelihood of welfare-reducing application mistakes.