Even the most casual observers of history concede that attempts to predict the next threat to national defense are often erroneous and, consequently, not only futile but also misleading. In elegant yet candid fashion, Nassim Taleb addresses the inclination to fallaciously predict by conceptualizing the "black swan" phenomenon, which involves highly improbable events, thus almost impossible to anticipate, that inflict disproportionate influence. Subsequently, we examine these events in hindsight and rationalize them with prescriptive remedies. Though doing so is a human tendency, such a retrospective analysis ignores the fact that these events transcend normal expectations and, therefore, are innately unpredictable. Taleb's The Black Swan is an inviting narrative of this phenorrlenon, driving deeply into the author's philosophical approach to life and, in the process, providing an invaluable education in history, philosophy, economics, and foreboding-all of which make the book a welcomed companion for those who seek to understand the future.
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机译：即使是历史上最偶然的观察者也承认，试图预测对国防的下一个威胁常常是错误的，因此，不仅徒劳，而且还具有误导性。纳西姆·塔勒布（Nassim Taleb）以优雅却坦率的方式，通过将“黑天鹅”现象概念化来解决虚假预测的倾向，这种现象涉及极不可能发生的事件，因此几乎无法预料，造成不成比例的影响。随后，我们事后检查这些事件，并通过说明性的补救措施使它们合理化。尽管这样做是人类的趋势，但这种回顾性分析忽略了以下事实：这些事件超出了正常预期，因此本来就不可预测。塔勒布（Taleb）的《黑天鹅》（The Black Swan）是这种现象的诱人叙述，深入探究了作者的人生哲学方法，并在此过程中提供了对历史，哲学，经济学和预感的宝贵教育，所有这些使这本书成为受欢迎的伴侣对于那些寻求了解未来的人。
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