The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Second Edition

摘要

Students, researchers and practitioners interested in topics of uncertainty, randomness, probability, philosophy, prediction, decision making etc. This is a famous, critical and entertaining book about randomness, uncertainty and related topics. One of its points is that we should make a careful distinction between different random events and avoid making useless predictions. Instead, we should admit that we cannot predict everything and put the focus on the possible consequences, although the probabilities of some events might seem negligible. The name of the book refers to an unexpected event that has a major effect, either positive or negative one, depending on its observer. Examples include 9/11, the stock market crash, Harry Potter, Google, and so on.