WHAT DETERMINES THE PERMANENT EMIGRATION OF POLES? THE ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIAL DIVERSIFICATION OF CAUSES IN THREE ECONOMIC AGE GROUPS

摘要

Our paper seeks answers to the following questions: What are the determinants of permanent emigration from Poland and how do they vary for specific economic age groups (pre-working, working, and post-working age)? Do the causes of permanent emigration differ over space in these categories, and if so, how? We applied GIS and ESDA instruments, including geographically weighted regression, which allowed us to identify the variability of regression coefficients in the geographical space. Our research indicated socio-economic factors (among others: poviats budget income, feminisation rate, unemployment rate), which, with varying force and in varying directions, affected the studied variable in specific parts of the country. The analyses were performed on the basis of statistical data on the numbers of de-registrations for residence abroad in Poland's NUTS-4 in three economic age groups (pre-working, working, and post-working age) for the time span from 2005 to 2013.