Estimating crashes involving heavy vehicles in Western Australia, 1999-2000: a capture-recapture method.

摘要

A two-sample exploratory study of police and hospital records was undertaken to estimate the number of fatalities and serious injuries for heavy vehicle drivers involved in a crash in Western Australia. The capture-recapture method was used to assess differences and similarities in characteristics of heavy vehicle drivers from both sources. Each heavy vehicle driver involved in a crash from the police report was matched against the heavy vehicle driver's hospitalisation record from the Hospital Morbidity Data System, with surname, initials, date of birth, gender, date of crash, road user type and vehicle type as matching fields. The estimated number of fatalities and serious injuries to heavy vehicle drivers from 1st July 1999 to 31st December 2000 was 5 and 59, respectively, which was 25 and 31% higher based on the capture-recapture methodology than the aggregated (non-overlapping) total officially reported to the police and hospitals. No significant age difference (p>0.05) was found for drivers involved in a heavy vehicle crash between the two sources (37 years versus 40 year of age). However, female heavy vehicle drivers were over-represented in the hospital records (11%) compared to the police records (1%). The capture-recapture approach is useful for evaluating the completeness of data sources and identifying biases within datasets. The underestimation of heavy vehicle drivers seriously injured and killed has important implications for heavy vehicle safety management and resource allocation in Western Australia.