Monte carlo method for estimating whole-body injury metrics from pedestrian impact simulation results

摘要

The goal of the current study was to develop a method to estimate whole-body injury metrics (WBIMs), which measure the overall impact of injuries, using stochastic injury prediction results from a computational human surrogate. First, hospitalized pedestrian data was queried to identify injuries sustained by pedestrians and their frequencies. Second, with consideration for an understanding of injury mechanisms and the capability of the computational human surrogate, the whole-body was divided into 17 body regions. Then, an injury pattern database was constructed for each body region for various maximum abbreviated injury scale (MAIS) levels. Third, a two-step Monte Carlo sampling process was employed to generate N virtual pedestrians with an assigned list of injuries in AIS codes. Then, the expected values of WBIMs such as injury severity score (ISS), probability of death, whole-body functional capacity index (WBFCI), and lost years of life (LYL), were estimated. Lastly, the proposed method was verified using injury information from the inpatient pedestrian database. Also, the proposed method was applied to pedestrian impact simulations with various impact speeds to estimate the probability of death with respect to the impact speed. The probability of death from the proposed method was compared with those from epidemiological studies.The proposed method accurately estimated WBIMs such as ISS and WBFCI using either for a given distribution of injury risk or MAIS levels. The predicted probability of death with respect to the impact speed showed a good correlation with those from the epidemiological study. These results imply that if we have a human surrogate that can predict the risk of injury accurately, we can accurately estimate WBIMs using the proposed method. The proposed method can simplify a vehicle design optimization process by transforming the multi-objective optimization problem into the single-objective one. Lastly, the proposed method can be applied to other human surrogates such as occupant models.