日射量短時間予測システム「アポロン」の開発と精度向上に向けた取り組み

摘要

Feed-in Tar iff (FIT) scheme was introduced in July 2012 in Japan to promote renewable generating resources. Since then, grid connection of photovoltaic power generation has been rapidly increasing. For stable demand-and supply control in such situation, it is necessary for transmission system operators to estimate accurately the photovoltaic generation output over their entire service areas in order to maintain appropriately the demand-and-supply balance by regulating the power output of conventional units such as thermal and hydro. As a countermeasure of this issue, we introduced and improved areal solar power forecasting system named "ApoI Ion". This paper shows method of estimating present value and forecasting future in the several hours of photovoltaic generation output utiliz ing meteorological satellite imagery. Appl icat ion of this function will achieve stable supply control and economic operation of thermal units in a power system with large photovoltaic power generation penetration, thereby contributing to the realization of optimal demand-and-supply control in the future.%再生可能エネルギーの固定価格買取制度が導入された平成24年7月以降，国内では太陽光発電(PV： PhotovoItaics) の普及が急速に進んでいる.図1に示すように，関西電力 供給エリア内でも，既に413万kW (平成28年9月末）が 導入されている.