Economic analysis of alternative nutritional management of dual-purpose cow herds in central coastal Veracruz Mexico

摘要

Market information was combined with predicted input–output relationships in an economic analysis of alternative nutritional management for dual-purpose member herds of the Genesis farmer organization of central coastal Veracruz, Mexico. Cow productivity outcomes for typical management and alternative feeding scenarios were obtained from structured sets of simulations in a companion study of productivity limitations and potentials using the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System model (Version 6.0). Partial budgeting methods and sensitivity analysis were used to identify economically viable alternatives based on expected change in milk income over feed cost (change in revenues from milk sales less change in feed costs). Herd owners in coastal Veracruz have large economic incentives, from $584 to $1,131 in predicted net margin, to increase milk sales by up to 74% across a three-lactation cow lifetime by improving diets based on good quality grass and legume forages. This increment is equal to, or exceeds, in value the total yield from at least one additional lactation per cow lifetime. Furthermore, marginal rates of return (change in milk income over feed costs divided by change in variable costs when alternative practices are used) of 3.3 ± 0.8 indicate clear economic incentives to remove fundamental productivity vulnerabilities due to chronic energy deficits and impeded growth of immature cows under typical management. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the economic outcomes are robust for a variety of market conditions.