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Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products

机译:完全不确定的报刊供应商问题:创新产品案例

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摘要

The paper presents a new scenario-based decision rule for the classical version of the newsvendor problem (NP) under complete uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty with unknown probabilities). So far, NP has been analyzed under uncertainty with known probabilities or under uncertainty with partial information (probabilities known incompletely). The novel approach is designed for the sale of new, innovative products, where it is quite complicated to define probabilities or even probability-like quantities, because there are no data available for forecasting the upcoming demand via statistical analysis. The new procedure described in the contribution is based on a hybrid of Hurwicz and Bayes decision rules. It takes into account the decision maker’s attitude towards risk (measured by coefficients of optimism and pessimism) and the dispersion (asymmetry, range, frequency of extremes values) of payoffs connected with particular order quantities. It does not require any information about the probability distribution.
机译:本文针对完全不确定性(即概率未知的不确定性)下的经典新闻商问题(NP)提出了一种基于场景的新决策规则。到目前为止,已经在具有已知概率的不确定性或具有部分信息的不确定性(不完全已知的概率)下分析了NP。这种新颖的方法专为销售新的创新产品而设计,在其中定义概率甚至类似于概率的数量非常复杂,因为没有可用的数据可以通过统计分析来预测即将到来的需求。文稿中描述的新过程基于Hurwicz和Bayes决策规则的混合。它考虑了决策者对风险的态度(通过乐观和悲观系数来衡量)以及与特定订单数量相关的收益的分散性(不对称性,范围,极端值的出现频率)。它不需要有关概率分布的任何信息。

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